BlackRock iShares — flow radar
Net flow = primary-market creations / redemptions (change in official shares outstanding × NAV) — a read on where big money is actually entering or leaving each fund, not just secondary-market trading. The headline number on each card is the trailing-20-session cumulative net flow; green = money in, red = money out. Canaries tend to move before the broad market (credit, rates, EM, crypto, small-cap stress).
Central view of BlackRock's own money: net flow = primary-market creations / redemptions (change in a fund's official shares outstanding × NAV) — dollars actually entering or leaving the fund, not price moves. Positive = buying, negative = selling. “Unusual” is a z-score: how far each series' trailing-20-day pace sits from its own 2-year history, so it is fund-size-independent. Covers all 48 tracked iShares funds: crypto, credit, rates/cash, bonds, metals and miners, US and international equity, sector and industry harbingers, construction, defense, infrastructure, and factor portfolios. BlackRock's file lags ~1–2 days, so figures are as of the latest fund date.
Combined US-equity net flow over time
Every fund — when has BlackRock been unusually buying or selling
Where's the money — by asset class over time
Compare all net flows over time
Per-ETF flow radar — actual dollars in / out per fund
Cards below show absolute dollar net flow (trailing-20-session cumulative creations − redemptions) — the real amount of money in or out. This is not the z-score used in the dashboard above: the hero shows how unusual a flow is versus each fund's own history; these cards show the actual $ size. Click any card to open its full price · volume · flow chart.
Canaries — move before the broad market
Highest volume & flow — core benchmarks & asset-gatherers
Estimated primary-market creation/redemption = change in the fund's official shares outstanding × ending NAV. Positive means authorized participants created new shares (money in); negative means they redeemed (money out).
Exchange volume can churn between traders without changing what the fund holds. Flow only moves when shares are actually created or destroyed — a cleaner read on real positioning.
Some funds (EEM, EFA, IEMG) update shares outstanding in discrete chunks, so a flat day is a genuine no-creation day — not missing data. Use the trailing-20 total to see the trend.
Credit (HYG, LQD, EMB), rates (TLT), small caps (IWM), gold (IAU) and crypto (IBIT) often flinch before large-cap equities. Sustained outflows there are an early risk-off tell.
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Big picture analysis in plain English
Money is rotating into semiconductors, Korea, diversified financials, biotechnology, cash and bonds while broad U.S. growth, small caps and economically sensitive groups leak. That can fuel tradable rebounds, but it is not the breadth of a clean, durable risk-on move.
Strong recent inflows
| ETF | 5 sessions | 20 sessions | Flow / AUM | 20d price | Plain-English read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOXX Semiconductors |
+$2.36B | +$8.9B | +18.34% | −15.62% | Extreme dip-buying rather than price confirmation. This was the most unusual inflow in the 48-fund universe. |
| EWY Korea / semiconductors proxy |
+$2.37B | +$2.66B | +11.27% | −21.06% | Aggressive creations into a steep drawdown: potential rebound fuel, but also evidence that buyers are absorbing heavy supply. |
| SGOV T-bill cash |
+$794.4M | +$3.63B | +3.66% | 0% | Persistent liquidity parking. Constructive for available buying power, defensive for the current risk regime. |
| IYF Diversified U.S. financials |
+$120.3M | +$501.9M | +11.21% | +3.65% | The cleanest financial signal: ten creation days in the latest 20 sessions and positive price confirmation. Regional-bank ETF IAT did not confirm. |
| IBB Biotechnology |
+$130.9M | +$609.4M | +6.43% | +6.95% | The best combination of sustained inflow and positive price action. |
| EMB Emerging-market debt |
+$229.1M | +$910.3M | +6.04% | −1.06% | Meaningful demand, though price has not confirmed. |
| LQD Investment-grade credit |
−$332.5M | +$3.69B | +10.64% | −1.77% | Large earlier accumulation is now cooling; recent redemptions matter more for the immediate tape. |
| TLT Long Treasuries |
−$76.1M | +$2.8B | +6.61% | −2.82% | Earlier duration demand is also cooling, reinforcing the barbell rather than a simple equity-pump interpretation. |
Strong recent outflows / divergences
| ETF | 5 sessions | 20 sessions | Flow / AUM | 20d price | Plain-English read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IVV U.S. large-cap |
−$4.77B | +$36.89B | — | +0.56% | The positive 20-day total came mainly from huge June 23–26 creations; the current 5- and 10-session direction is sharply negative. |
| IWM U.S. small-cap |
−$1.29B | −$819.8M | — | −0.55% | Broad small-cap participation is missing, although smaller core fund IJR remained positive. |
| IWF Large-cap growth |
−$925.4M | −$1.59B | — | −0.35% | Broad growth is leaking even while semiconductor-specific funds attract money. |
| FXI China large-cap |
−$291.9M | −$813.6M | — | +3.59% | Redemptions into rising prices look like selling into strength. |
| IYW Broad technology |
−$305.5M | −$379.8M | — | −3.49% | Technology demand is narrowly concentrated in semiconductors, not broad across the sector. |
| IYM Materials |
−$26.3M | −$388.1M | −34.57% | −5.29% | The most abnormal cyclical outflow relative to the fund's own history and size. |
| ICLN Clean energy |
−$38.3M | −$260M | −10.63% | −14.38% | Flow and price both remain weak. |
| ITB Home construction |
−$84.1M | −$235.9M | −10.31% | −2.48% | A rate-sensitive economic harbinger that does not confirm broad risk-on. |
| IYT Transportation |
+$26.8M | −$237M | −10.06% | +4.67% | A small recent creation does not yet reverse the substantial 20-session redemption. |
| IYR Real estate |
+$7.6M | −$430.2M | −9.45% | +3.85% | Price is rising while fund shares leave: another selling-into-strength divergence. |
What it means
The latest five-session board is negative overall, and removing SOXX and EWY leaves approximately $5.34B of outflow. Broad large-cap, growth and small-cap funds are losing shares while cash and bonds gather assets.
High-yield credit has stabilized, biotechnology has flow-and-price confirmation, IJR remains positive and diversified financials are accumulating. Those signals do not yet describe a synchronized risk-off break.
It can provide rebound fuel if sellers exhaust, but it can also mean buyers are being overwhelmed. The signal becomes bullish only when price begins confirming the creations instead of continuing to fall.
IYF accumulation is persistent and constructive, but regional banks in IAT are nearly flat. Treat this as diversified-financial strength, not proof that the entire banking or credit cycle is accelerating.
Another large SOXX redemption while SOXX and EWY fail to reclaim their ranges, combined with renewed HYG and IVV outflows, would turn top-building risk into a much stronger bearish signal.
Flows must broaden into IVV, IWF, IWM, transports, materials and homebuilders while cash parking slows. Semiconductor inflow by itself is not enough.
Near-term regime ranking
- Chop / violent rotationMost likely
Flow breadth is mixed, leadership is narrow and the newest aggregate sessions are negative.
- Temporary Korea / semiconductor rebound pumpPlausible and partly underway
Huge creations can fuel a squeeze, but SOXX's next-day redemption warns that the trade is crowded and two-way.
- Confirmed broad-market topNot confirmed
Top-building risk is elevated, but credit and selected risk groups have not broken together.
- Durable broad-market pumpLeast supported
IVV, IWF and IWM flows must turn positive and cyclicals must broaden before this interpretation becomes credible.
Expiry and exact closing-price boundaries
Any crossed boundary makes this written verdict stale. The page checks these against its latest loaded daily closes.
- After July 30, 2026 market close: The analysis horizon is only five trading sessions. Recompute even if price remains inside every boundary.
- SOXX closes at or above $582: A reclaim of the recent 10-session ceiling materially strengthens the rebound/pump case.
- SOXX closes at or below $521: A break of the recent closing low indicates failed dip-buying and raises rollover risk.
- EWY closes at or above $185: A reclaim of the recent 10-session ceiling invalidates the purely countertrend interpretation.
- EWY closes at or below $162: A new closing low means the heavy creations have not absorbed supply.
- IVV closes at or above $759: A broad-market breakout increases the odds that narrow leadership is broadening.
- IVV closes at or below $730: A break of the recent 20-session floor materially advances the top/rollover case.
- HYG closes at or below $79.50: Credit weakness would remove an important reason not to call a confirmed top.
- IYF closes at or below $127.50: A break of its recent 20-session floor invalidates the constructive financials signal.
Newer official share-count spot checks
Official shares fell from 87.80M to 82.75M; at $555.45 NAV this implies a roughly $2.81B one-day redemption not yet present in the July 21 app series.
Official shares rose from 136.45M to 138.15M; at $169.65 NAV this implies roughly $288M of additional creation.
Official shares rose from 984.45M to 985.50M, implying roughly $106M of additional cash-fund creation.
Official shares rose only slightly, implying roughly $113M of creation after the preceding multi-billion-dollar redemptions.
Current market context
- Chip stocks drove the July 21 rebound, but the Nasdaq fell 0.6% the following session as AI leadership remained volatile. AP, July 22 market report
- Rising oil and Treasury yields remain headwinds to market breadth and rate-sensitive groups. Reuters, July 22 market report
Important caveats
- ETF creations and redemptions are primary-market activity, not the same thing as exchange trading volume.
- A creation can reflect market-making, hedging, relative-value positioning or a switch from another vehicle; it is not automatically a directional conviction trade.
- BlackRock's workbook normally lags the market by one or two sessions. The dated verdict must not be silently carried forward.
- Zero flow is a real unchanged-share observation. Missing future observations must remain blank and must never be forward-filled.
How this section is maintained — instructions for future LLMs
This is a dated manual interpretation, not an autonomous signal. Its sole content source is data/big-picture-analysis.json. When the user asks for an update, refresh the official workbooks and Massive histories, run node local-only/report_big_picture.mjs, review concentration and divergences, then replace the JSON snapshot. Do not edit the renderer for a normal analysis refresh.
- This JSON is the only narrative/data source for the visible Big picture analysis in plain English section. Do not hardcode a new verdict in index.php.
- Update only when the user manually asks for a refreshed analysis. This section is intentionally not an autonomous trading signal.
- First refresh all official BlackRock workbooks and Massive daily histories with local-only/build_all.mjs, then run local-only/report_big_picture.mjs.
- Verify every fund has the same latest dataThrough session. Clearly label any official product-page spot check that is newer than the workbook series.
- Recompute 5-, 10- and 20-session net flows; latest-AUM percentages; rolling 20-session z-scores; price returns; flow breadth; class totals; and daily aggregate totals.
- Separate broad flow from concentration. Always report the board total with and without the dominant one to three funds.
- Treat falling price plus inflow as dip-buying/divergence, not automatic bullish confirmation. Check whether credit, cash, rates, small caps and cyclical harbingers agree.
- Set validUntil to no more than five trading sessions after createdAt. Replace every price boundary using recent closing ranges, and state what each crossing changes.
- Keep all threshold rules based on daily closes. The page automatically compares them with the latest daily prices returned by mode=list and marks the analysis REASSESS when crossed.
- Preserve the sparse-flow policy: never interpolate or carry daily BlackRock flow into missing minute/hour periods.
- After editing, validate JSON, run php -l index.php, run node --check on any changed JavaScript, render the live page in a browser, and confirm expired/triggered status behavior.
- Do not change the 48-fund registry or any unrelated dashboard component while refreshing this analysis.